Expert PHDs have it all wrong Home Prices will go much higher

July 19th, 2023 2:33 PM by Andrew Walter May CEO


Nearly 1 in 4 American homeowners have an interest rate below 3%. Another 33% paid cash for their home. That's close to 60% of Americans pretty much unaffected by rising mortgage rates.

That tells me, only 1 out of 3 homes might be sold for purposes of rates rising too quickly. There's nearly 80 million homes in the US. 24 million represent the 1 out of 3 that aren't mortgage free or mortgage insulated (less than a 3% rate). By 2013 nearly 15 million homes had gone into foreclosure or received a loan-mod. through our last recession (2009-2013).

We are to believe that this price run up we've experienced over the last 5 years is going to pop. Slow, yes. But pop? No. Not even close. Past blog/newsletters have spoken to the lack of new home construction (about 5 million short of demand). 

Bottom line is that this Pundit (credentialed out) says, home prices will rise for at least the next two years. I think we'll see 15% home price increases (in total) in the next 2-3 years. Remember the supply chain issues will increase pricing too, along with labor shortages. Those Ivory Tower Pundits don't see what it's like in the trenches and rely on back-testing data. Try predicting the future, not testing the past. Home Prices are heading higher in the hot job market areas of the country. That's not to say that country-folk in the boonies won't suffer - they almost always do. But Single Family (not condos) housing will continue to crush it through 2024 on price alone (HIGHER).

Posted by Andrew Walter May CEO on July 19th, 2023 2:33 PM


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