Triangle home prices take a break for May 2014

August 8th, 2014 9:16 AM by Andrew Walter May

May 2014 data point to continued large supply of housing stock in Wake County, as Andy May, the mortgage expert, and Irene Higginson, Realtor, explain the data. Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill continues to be a Sellers' Market. As predicted over the last year, home price gains are slowing in Wake County, up 5.9% year to date through May (median home prices) 2014. While most Realtors are hyping the market as hot, the facts point to nearly a 10% increase in new listings. There's no need to panic when purchasing that perfect home.

Housing supply that has fallen to 4.5 months (up from 3.5 months in January), according to Triangle MLS, this (Raleigh) top relocation market will see home prices continue to rise but at a slower pace.

As expected, during the run-up to spring (May) additional homes were listed - with an 8.8% increase in new listings to 2415 homes on the market in Wake County. Year over year data indicate that listings were relatively flat and that prices are only up 6% year over year. Durham County appears to be about 6 months lagging behind Wake in terms of numbers. We expect Durham to continue to slow. Orange County, appears to be in a downward spiral with home prices actually falling on almost all comparative periods.

In fact, Orange County (unit) home sales are almost down 9 to 17%. Irene Higginson, Realtor, states, "When it comes to all the publicity of being one of the top five relocation markets in the country Raleigh and Wake County is what the consumer demands. In fact, that's where all the job growth is. Despite Orange County's aggressive expansion plans in the future, Wake County will continue to be a top priority for relocating families."

Here's the additional data: 
Unit home sales in Wake county are up +2% year to date through May 2014. Irene Higginson, Realtor, can provide neighborhood level data when looking more specifically. Additionally, average home prices are rising but at a slower pace. The percentage off original list price that a home sells for in Wake County has also risen to 98.3% May 2014; indicating that sellers are getting closer to the original list price (up from 97% at the beginning of the year). Orange and Durham Counties continue to be in the low 97% range for accepted offers relative to list price.

While all this is interesting, what about the future housing stock and unemployment rates in Wake County? Wake County has a super-low housing stock supply of 4.5 months (aka a "Sellers Market").

Couple the housing stock numbers with job growth (and unemployment) and future home prices can be predicted with relative accuracy. According to the Bureau of Labor, despite North Carolina's 2.2% drop to 6.2% unemployment rate - North Carolina ranks as the 30th lowest state in the country. However, the Triangle has some of the lowest State unemployment levels approaching the 5% number (which is approximately 17th if Wake County were compared to states).

Triangle residential home price appreciation should continue to follow a low overall unemployment rate with a short (but rising) supply of housing stock. Durham and Chapel Hill data can be requested by contacting Andy May, the mortgage expert.

On the National front, the home price market has corrected to within 15% of the 2008 peak. Home prices nationwide are back to 2004 levels and have another 15% to go before hitting the all-time high level of 2008. Nationally, home prices are up 13% year over year and over the last five years they are up 2.8% per year (better than savings rates for sure).

For more information on mortgage loans, call at 919 771 3379 or visit ADRMortgage on the web. Irene Higginson, Realtor, states, "The Triangle has remained a top 5 relocation market due to excellent schools, outdoor activities, and a big city life style at country prices."

Get the most value out of a home sale or purchase by working with licensed professionals that have significant experience. Why risk your biggest asset to an 18 year old unlicensed person at a bank or credit union (these "loan officers" are often times unlicensed, although afforded lofty titles)? Find additional information from Andy May at Andy May's blog. was founded by Andy May in 2005. Refinance, Purchase, VA, FHA, and nearly every loan product - for additional information, please go to or contact Andy May directly. License number 103418.

Posted in:General
Posted by Andrew Walter May on August 8th, 2014 9:16 AM


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